Die russische Aggression gegen die Ukraine hat in einer bereits kritischen Preis- und Hungersituation zu zusätzlichen globalen Versorgungsrisiken geführt. Diese zusätzliche Belastung wirkt als Krisenverstärker, der durch typische Krisenreaktionen großer Exportländer, d. h. durch...

The energy transition increases the demand for minerals from ethnically diverse, conflict-prone developing countries. We study whether and where mining is possible in such countries without raising the risk of civil conflict. We proceed in three steps: First, we propose a theoretical model to...

This paper explores the legacies of wartime rebel governance and counterinsurgency tactics. Insurgents rely on civilian support for resources, information, and cover. To defeat insurgents, the state attempts to extract information from communities where support for insurgents is highest. We...

What distinguishes post-war governments that succeed in establishing a stable political order and prevent recurring conflict from those that do not? This comparative study considers the specific threats that typically lead to the collapse of the post-conflict political order to offer new...

Conflict undermines development, while poverty, in turn, breeds conflict. Policy interventions such as cash transfers could lower engagement in conflict by raising poor households' welfare and productivity. However, cash transfers may also trigger appropriation or looting of cash or assets. The...

Existing literature has focused on the relationship between oil and conflict. Yet, many of these studies have failed to study a critical variable mediating the effect that the fluctuating market price for oil has on conflict, particularly conflict intensity. We theorize that the military...

Venezuela has suffered three economic catastrophes since independence: one each in the nineteenth, twentieth, and twenty-first centuries. Prominent explanations for this trilogy point to the interaction of class conflict and resource dependence. We turn attention to intra-class conflict, arguing...

Why do different types of information and communications technologies (ICTs) differentially relate to civil conflict incidence? We distinguish one-way (radio; television) from two-way ICTs (phone; internet; social media), contrasting technologies enabling one-directional broadcasting against...

The question about the relationship between violent conflicts and international trade has a long tradition, and empirical research in the 1990s and early 2000s has established that violent interstate conflicts do harm international trade. While most of this literature dates back at least 10 to...

We estimate the impact of political conflict on immigration using economic sanctions imposed by China on South Korea as a natural experiment. Due to the deployment of the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system in South Korea in 2016 (in cooperation with the US), China started a...