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The ECB survey of professional forecasters : forecast processes and methodologies : results of the 2023 special survey : survey conducted on the occasion of the 25th anniversary of...

European Central Bank - 2024

special survey on SPF forecast processes and methodologies in the fourth quarter of 2023 (after 100 rounds of the SPF and 25 …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015277055

The ECB survey of professional forecasters : forecast processes and methodologies : results of the 2023 special survey : survey conducted on the occasion of the 25th anniversary of...

European Central Bank - 2024

special survey on SPF forecast processes and methodologies in the fourth quarter of 2023 (after 100 rounds of the SPF and 25 …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015277066

Inflation forecasts : are marketbased and survey-based measures informative?

Grothe, Magdalena (contributor); Meyler, Aidan (contributor) - European Central Bank - 2015

This paper analyses the predictive power of market-based and survey-based inflation expectations for actual inflation. We use the data on inflation swaps and the forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters for the euro area and the United States. The results show that both market-based...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015296688

Forecasting the Brent oil price : addressing time-variation in forecast performance; N°1735, September 2014

Manescu, Cristiana (contributor); … - European Central Bank - 2014

This paper demonstrates how the real-time forecasting accuracy of different Brent oil price forecast models changes … propose a forecast combination approach to predict quarterly real Brent oil prices. A four-model combination (consisting of … than the futures and the random walk up to 11 quarters ahead, on average, and generates a forecast whose performance is …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015301971

The growth effect of EU funds : the role of institutional quality

Augusztin, Anna (contributor); Iker, Áron (contributor); … - European Central Bank - 2025

This paper investigates the growth impact of the EU's Structural, Cohesion and Pre-accession Funds. We look at a large sample of 27 EU countries and the UK, over a period of 1989 and 2020, essentially covering the full history of these funds. We show that the growth effect of the funds is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015322770

Monetary policy and growth-at-risk : the role of institutional quality

Emter, Lorenz (contributor); Moura, Afonso S. (contributor); … - European Central Bank - 2024

This paper analyses how country-specific institutional quality shapes the impact of monetary policy on downside risks to GDP growth in the euro area. Using identified highfrequency shocks in a growth-at-risk framework, we show that monetary policy has a higher impact on downside risks in the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015321121

Measuring institutional competitiveness in Europe

Huemer, Stefan (contributor); Scheubel, Beatrice (contributor) - European Central Bank - 2014

While there are many methods to measure the competitiveness of an economy, most of these concepts do not sufficiently distinguish between how market factors influence competitiveness, and what governments can do to improve their competitive position. Disentangling market-induced and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015301795

The determinants of part-time work in EU countries : empirical investigations with macro-panel data

Buddelmeyer, Hielke (contributor); … - European Commission / Directorate-General for Economic …; … - 2004

This paper aims to identify the contribution of the business cycle and structural factors to the development of part-time employment in the EU-15 countries, through the exploitation of both cross-sectional and time series variations over the past two decades. This analysis is used to comment on...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015317427

The information content of money and credit for US activity

Albuquerque, Bruno (contributor); Baumann, Ursel (contributor) - European Central Bank - 2015

We analyse the forecasting power of different monetary aggregates and credit variables for US GDP. Special attention is paid to the influence of the recent financial market crisis. For that purpose, in the first step we use a three-variable single-equation framework with real GDP, an interest...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015298932

Eurosystem standards for the use of triparty agents in Eurosystem credit operations

European Central Bank - 2017

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015290756