When the future evolution of demographic processes is described in a stochastic setting, the challenge is to communicate the meaning of forecast uncertainty in an understandable way, to decision makers and public at large. For the purpose of risk communication, a formal setting is developed, in...

This paper presents a stochastic integrated model to forecast the German population and labour supply until 2060. Within a cohort-component approach, the population forecast applies principal components to birth, mortality, emigration and immigration rates. The labour force participation rates...

State tax revenue forecasting is critical to states’ fiscal planning because many states have constitutions or laws that require a balanced budget and restrict borrowing to fund deficits. We present three main findings about state tax revenue growth forecasts and state-specific aggregate...

R&D-based growth models are tested using US data for the period 1953-2014. A general growth model is developed which nests the model varieties of interest. The model implies a cointegrating relationship between multifactor productivity, research intensity, and employment. This relationship is...

Directed technical change is to a large extent driven by changes in the supply of workforce skills. I demonstrate that directed technical change does not respond to changes in the skill saturation of the workforce in a way that fully reflects supply of the actual existing skill level. I estimate...

This paper analyses the macroeconomic implications of a future shift in the age structure of the Swiss population. It estimates the long-run effects for Swiss GDP growth and its components in an Overlapping Generations Model (OLG model). Recent population projections by the Federal Statistical...