proposed model demonstrates a remarkable performance in short-term and medium-term forecasting. Using real-time GDP data since …

for Germany preselected from a broader set using the Elastic Net soft-thresholding rule. The three states represent … probabilities with a simple GDP forecasting model yields an accurate nowcast for the steepest decline in GDP in 2009Q1 and a correct …

, marginal likelihood comparisons and improved real-time GDP forecasting performance. …