It Runs in the Family: Occupational Choice and the Allocation of Talent

Children tend to choose the same occupations as their parents. We examine the implications of this tendency for talent allocation and intergenerational mobility. Using Swedish data on skills and personality traits, we estimate a general equilibrium Roy model with unequal occupational access depending on parental background. Equalizing access halves occupational following and increases intergenerational earnings mobility by a third, benefiting low-income sons most. Exploiting long-run declines in fathers' occupations, we find that reduced following improves sons' skill-matching and raises earnings, aligning with our model. Our results suggest that facilitating more occupational mobility would increase intergenerational income mobility without reducing output.